Japan's Meloni Moment?
A female conservative firebrand seizes the spotlight amidst a surge in populism, but will the forerunner for PM reach the top?
Goodbye, Mr. Ishiba
An unusually peaceful, sunny, and warm Sunday morning in the capital of Europe was disturbed yesterday by the news that the Japanese Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, had resigned.
Mr. Ishiba’s resignation followed July’s dramatic election results that saw the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lose its majority in the upper house, and the populist Sanseito party make stunning gains.
This, in turn, was preceded by the LDP’s loss of its majority in the lower house in October, for the first time in almost 15 years.
The story of an entrenched political system being uprooted by a populist surge is a familiar one in Europe, as is the frustration with poor economic growth and immigration that fueled Sanseito’s performance.
Perhaps this is why Europeans were quick to speculate on Sanae Takaichi, the populist right-winger who would be Japan’s Giorgia Meloni, as the figure who would become Japan’s next Prime Minister.
In this article, we will look at Ms. Takichi and ask the question: Is Japan really going through its ‘Meloni Moment?’.
A Word on Procedure
But firstly, it’s standard practice for veterans of politics to keep one eye on procedure whenever discussing anything. It is often procedures, dates, and timelines that guide political change, not headlines.
The LDP has now set its Presidential election date for 4 October. whoever wins this contest will become the leader of the LDP.
Ms. Takaichi has already announced her candidacy and emerged as a frontrunner.
But leading the LDP does not make you Prime Minister. The post of Prime Minister is chosen by the Diet, with a vote in both the lower and upper house.
This poses a particular headache for the LDP as, following its losses under Kishida and Ishiba, it holds neither a majority in the upper nor lower house.
The next candidate must therefore be capable of either retaining the LDPs current coalition partner (Komeito) or finding new coalition partners, preferably without fracturing the LDP.
Sanae Takaichi
The intense political discussions, schemes, and grandstanding that follow the fall of any politician always have some degree of unpredictability, but early reactions quickly focused on Ms. Takaichi.
Ms. Takaichi, a former minister in Shinzo Abe’s cabinet and 30-year veteran of Japan’s political system, is no stranger to the spotlight, having only narrowly lost the LDP leadership contest to Shigeru Ishiba in 2021.
A staunch conservative who views Margaret Thatcher as her role model, Ms. Takaichi has followed in the footsteps of European counterparts Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, and Alice Weidl as a leading woman championing solidly right wing social positions.
These views include opposition to same-sex marriage, and criticism of immigration. She described a 2020 gender equality plan has potentially ‘destroying Japans social structure’.
Further, Ms. Takaichi is a card-carrying member of Nippon Kaigi, an influential conservative pressure group advocating for increased nationalism, rearmament, and a rejection of guilt for alleged Japanese war crimes during the second world war.
These views are relatively popular in Japan, and Mr. Ishiba’s liberalisation of immigration policy quickly fueled right-wing support in a country known for its homogeneity, seeing Sanseito emerge from obscurity to achieve fantastic gains.
A JNN opinion poll revealed that Ms. Takaichi was the joint-first forerunner in ‘who would be the most fit to become Prime Minister’. A Nikkei poll in August revealed her beating closest challenger Shinjiro Koizumi.
As Europeans know all too well - right wing figures drawing level with ‘establishment’ candidates often herald a populist wave.
The Trials of Takaichi
But for all the political momentum with Ms. Takaichi, and all the support she has gathered, there are still strong question marks over whether she will be able to take the reigns, with multiple hurdles yet to clear.
Firstly, and perhaps easiest, she will have to collect 20 nominations from sitting LDP members to be eligible for the vote.
Ms. Takaichi already achieved this in 2021, with the strong support of the Abe faction, and is likely to do so again, but a determined effort by the LDP’s centrist stalwarts might see her robbed at the first opportunity.
But Ms. Takaichi’s most severe threat would be the process of appointment to the position of Prime Minister.
The Japanese Prime Minister is elected with the consent of the Diet, where the LDPs reduced position would work against Ms. Takaichi. The LDP has long governed in coalition with the Komeito party, a pacifist party distinctly to the left of the LDP and in firm opposition to almost all of Ms. Takaichi’s views.
Leader Tetsuo Saito said on Sunday that Kometio ‘cannot form a government unless it is with someone who aligns with our conservative-centrist ideology’.
That, evidently, is a warning shot at Ms. Takaichi, who would struggle to find dependable support elsewhere.
Sanseito might have boomed, but they still hold only 15 seats in the upper house and 3 in the lower, far behind Komeito. Further, courting Sanseito’ support would be anathema to almost all of Japan’s centrist parties, and certainly provoke rebellion in the LDP.
So too, do other potential allies find themselves unable to make up the numbers. Ishin no Kai, a libertarian party. are collapsing amidst internal rebellion, with several members leaving to form a separate party after Mr. Ishiba’s resignation.
Other parties are simply too far politically to consider partnership with Ms. Takaichi.
Analysis: More Le Pen than Meloni
Whilst Ms. Takaichi has emerged as a forerunner in the immediate aftermath of Mr. Ishiba’s resignation, the sense that the tide is against her feels overpowering.
Whilst none of the hurdles that she would have to face to take office are necessarily insurmountable, the grandees of the LDP party have ready-made solutions elsewhere.
The emergence of centrist Shinjiro Koizumi, for example, who is currently the strongest challenger against Ms. Takaichi, provides a far more viable coalition builder given the current electoral arithmetic.
There remains a lot of noise in Europe about the potential for a populist leader in Japan, and with some justification - Ms. Takaichi simply cannot be ignored. But for the moment, these reflect a projection onto Japan of Europe's own transition into populism.
Is Japan undergoing its Meloni Moment? Not quite. Ms. Takaichi seems to have reached the Le Pen moment of populism - on the edge of victory, but not quite there yet.